Raptors: 5–2… a mirage?

The Raptors are off to one of their best starts in franchise history, and the positivity surrounding the team has been overwhelming. But, is the team playing at a high level? Let’s take a peek

• The overall offence: Through 7 games, the Raptors rank 16th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. This is after finishing 9th in 2013–14 & 3rd in 2014–15.
• The bench: Toronto’s subs rank 27th in the NBA in scoring (25.6 ppg), and 26th in FG% (39.2). Last season, the Raptors had the 5th highest-scoring bench in the NBA.
• The reliance on offensive stars: Lowry, DeRozan, & Valanciunas are Toronto’s best & most assertive players offensively, but when any of them take a seat on the bench, the team struggles. Consider: The Raptors offence is nearly 29 points per 100 possessions worse when DeRozan is on the bench, 32 points worse with Lowry on the bench, and 33 points worse with Valanciunas on the bench. This is a problem, but one that can be looked at a little further in depth with help from nbawowy.com…

Here’s what’s obvious from looking at the numbers: The Raptors are trying to maximize time with all 3 on the court, and minimize time with all 3 on the bench. This, I understand, is obvious.

Lowry-DeRozan-JV all on court: Raps +38 in 154 mins

Lowry-DeRozan-JV all on bench: Raps -17 in 34 mins

Some opportunities present themselves for the Raptors to improve their allocation of court time when you look at how the team performs with 1 or 2 of this trio on the bench.

Raptors with 2 of Lowry, DeRozan, JV on court: +28 in 81 mins

Raptors with 1 of Lowry, DeRozan, JV on court: -22 in 66 mins

When you break down those numbers directly above, there is only one particular player combination that stands out:

DeRozan on court (No Lowry/JV): -24 in 37 mins

Looking at all of these numbers together and you’re left with one inescapable conclusion: This team struggles mightily if both Lowry & Valanciunas are on the bench. I’m going to bold and italicize this summation of the numbers I’ve been looking at so you can appreciate how important I think it is:

The Raptors outscore teams by 9.9 points per 48 minutes with Lowry & Valanciunas on the court, and get outscored by 27.7 points per 48 minutes with both on the bench.

This is partly about these two players, and partly about Toronto’s flawed roster. With both of those players on the bench, that means Cory Joseph & Bismack Biyombo are both on the court, and there aren’t many combinations or permutations that allow for Toronto to succeed offensively with both those players on the floor.

But, there are 2 things Toronto can do right now to maximize their minutes allocation, and improve their on-court performance:

1. Increase Valanciunas’ minutes while at the same time decreasing Biyombo’s minutes

Biyombo’s impact has been vastly overstated, especially on the team broadcasts. The team’s defensive performance is roughly the same with Biyombo on court versus on the bench, and that doesn’t even take into account the lesser opposition the team is likely facing when Biyombo is playing. He is also blocking shots at a career-low per minute rate, turning the ball over at a career-high rate, and fouling at an obscenely high rate (7.3 fouls per 36 minutes — Most in the NBA among players with 80 or more minutes). With numbers like that, he should be playing 10–12 minutes per game, not 16–20.

2. Find opportunities to play Scola & Patterson together.

You can’t drastically reduce Biyombo’s minutes and give them all to Valanciunas, mainly because Valanciunas’ endurance can’t handle that increased workload. So that means the Raptors will have to experiment more with playing their two power forwards together, something they’ve done for just 6 minutes so far this season.

So, the Raptors good start has likely overshadowed a few flaws with its roster composition, but a few tweaks to how Dwane Casey doles out his court time can help hide those problems with the team makeup.