Serge Ibaka Joins the Raptors

The instant reaction to this trade was almost universal in its over-the-top praise for Masai Ujiri. Which I didn’t fully understand. Ibaka was probably the most available “good” player on the market, he was a free agent at year’s end, and he fit an obvious need on the Raptors. It was a name both media members and casual fans had been looking at for weeks, so it’s not as though this was some mindblowing acquisition. I get it, he fills a need, this team needed a boost, yadayadayada, but the fawning over it seems excessive.

One of the reasons I think the reaction has been overblown is this is what tends to happen when you acquire players who are past their prime. Fans, especially those who don’t watch a ton of non-local team basketball, get excited over what the incoming player was, as opposed to what he currently is.

Ibaka, age 22–25: 55% FG, 8 rebounds, 2.9 blocks

Ibaka, age 26–27: 48% FG, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks

His scoring and usage are at career-highs in Orlando, but the Magic — with Ibaka as their centrepiece — have regressed into the 29th-ranked offence in the NBA.

Having said all that, I still think Ibaka will help the Raptors, mostly because of the huge hole he fills, as opposed to the production he’s bringing. Consider: 82games.com lists each team’s net PER by position, and Toronto’s tell a vivid story. Point guard +4.9, shooting guard +8.7, small forward +3.1, centre -1.1, and… power forward -3.2. So, Ibaka isn’t as dominant as he used to be, sure, but he’s still wayyyyyyy better than what Toronto was trying to use at power forward, be it a less-than-healthy Patrick Patterson, an out-of-position Lucas Nogueira, an out-of-shape Jared Sullinger, or an out-of-their-league Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl.

But anyways, for those who maybe aren’t fully aware of what Ibaka has become in Orlando, let’s do a quick primer:

1. He has become a more complete offensive player. His post touches have jumped around 40% compared to what they were his last two seasons in Oklahoma City (call it the “no more Westbrook or Durant effect”). And he’s added little elements to his post/spot up game as well, most notably a little running hook shot that has become a go-to move (3 years ago, he hit 14 hook shots, then 34 and 35 in the following two seasons. This season, he’s already hit 56 in 56 games).
2. He remains ineffective in the pick-and-roll, at least as a scorer. Of 35 players with 100 possessions as the roll man in a pick & roll, Ibaka’s 0.95 points per possession ranks 25th. For comparison’s sake, Valanciunas, at 1.24, ranks 4th. But there’s all sorts of noise in that data, including not accounting for who the ballhandler is. There’s a reason the big men who play with Chris Paul, James Harden, and Kyle Lowry all are very efficient at finishing in the pick and roll, while Orlando’s big men struggle.
3. Ibaka’s game is really as a spot-up / pick-and-pop shooter. Among power forwards and centres, Ibaka ranks 6th in the NBA in catch-and-shoot points per game (6.7), behind only Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Marc Gasol, and Kristaps Porzingis
4. Ibaka used to be a corner threat, but…. In his last season in Oklahoma City, more than half of his three-point attempts came from the corners. This season, just 6% of his attempts (13 in total) have come from the corners.
5. Ibaka’s declining block rate is obvious and has been a talking point. But that doesn’t tell the whole story in terms of his defensive efffectiveness. Players shooting on him as the primary defender have been enjoying more success recently. Three seasons ago, opponents shot 45% at the rim against Ibaka, a top 10 mark among post players. Two seasons ago: 41%, second in the NBA only to Rudy Gobert. Last season: 44%, 3rd in the NBA. This season: 53%, 56th among 73 players defending at least four shots at the rim per game. Again, lots of noise in this data, mostly who your teammates are on the court. Playing alongside aggressive defenders like Durant and Adams had to have helped these numbers for Ibaka in the past, and playing with some below-average defenders in Orlando has to hurt them now. But when you combine these percentages with the declining block totals, you start to worry about the picture it paints.

So, the relative success of Ibaka in Toronto will come down to a few factors:

1. Can he recalibrate his basketball mind back to the way it was in Oklahoma City (in other words, playing with two ball-dominant guards)? My quick take: I think he can.
2. Are the Raptors deep enough on the wing to withstand the loss of Terrence Ross? My quick take: Yes, but my confidence has more to do with DeMarre Carroll’s improved play of late and less to do with Norm Powell. In evaluating this trade today, I think media/fans have undervalued Ross’ contributions this season, and are a bit too optimistic about Norm Powell’s readiness to contribute in all situations (not just ones that fit his skillset).
3. How will Jonas Valanciunas respond to today’s events? This to me is the biggest question hanging over the Ibaka acquisition. Because it seems as if the Raptors roster now features at least three post players Dwane Casey would prefer to play over Valanciunas, at least for defensive purposes. So, will this motivate Toronto’s starting centre to fight for pivotal court time? Or will it discourage him even more that this team could yet again sit him down in big postseason moments, just as it did last season when Bismack Biyombo became a cult hero.

Lots of unanswered questions, but today’s move has made the rest of this season, and especially the upcoming offseason much more intriguing here in Toronto.