The Toronto Blue Jays, First Pitch Strategy, Black Jack and Poker.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & the Toronto Blue Jays are ahead of the curve on a strategy that MLB hitters are employing more than ever.
Yesterday, MLB.com writer and Blue Jays Central contributor Mike Petriello posted a great story on how MLB hitters are attacking the first pitch more often than ever. He laid out some great reasons why, but just to summarize: there’s a lot of data that shows the first pitch could be the best pitch you’re going to see, so why not hit it? The argument against this used to be that there was some intrinsic benefit to seeing more pitches, working deep counts against a starter, “getting to a bullpen”, etc… but as more and more teams abandoned starters going into late innings, and relievers now all seemingly throwing 100 miles per hour, some benefits of deep counts seem to have been muted.
Funny enough, I was already looking at Blue Jays numbers on the first pitch of an at-bat for a few reasons: One, a lot of their hitters seemed to be swinging at a lot of them. And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seemed to be having a ton of success doing it:
So, with that in mind, and with Mr. Petriello and Mr. Shulman as inspiration, I dove into the Blue Jays offensive approach to first pitches. Here’s what I found:
- They’re probably the best team in baseball at hitting the first pitch of a plate appearance
A couple more bullets to further the argument that the Jays seem to have an offensive approach built around exploiting early-count pitches:
They have 37 hits on first pitch breaking balls (most in MLB) and swing at 48% of first pitch breaking balls in the zone (2nd highest in MLB), so I don’t think it’s just a “looking fastball early” approach. And the Jays also lead all of baseball in terms of most base hits in the first two pitches of an at-bat (197).
2. This seems to be a change in approach that began in earnest last season
In 2010, Vernon Wells had 44 hits and 9 home runs on the first pitch of an at-bat, both second highest in all of Major League Baseball to Vladimir Guerrero Sr, who never met a first, second, third, or fourth pitch of an at-bat that he didn’t like. I asked Wells about his approach, and he said he was looking middle/middle-in fastball, but ready to adjust to a hanging breaking ball.
“I felt as a hitter you should be ready to attack the moment you step in the box,” Wells said. “My at-bats started in the hole and especially the on-deck circle, so once I was in the box, I felt like I’d seen a few pitches already.”
2006 American League MVP Justin Morneau was another player who thrived on first pitch swings. In 2008 for example, he had 35 hits and 7 home runs on first pitches, both top-15 marks in Major League Baseball, and for the part of his career tracked by Savant/Statcast, he’s among the 30 best first-pitch hitters as tracked by Savant’s “Run Value.”
Morneau said he treated the first pitch of an at-bat the way most hitters treated a 2–0 count: He was aggressive looking for a certain pitch or location and he was looking to do damage. He didn’t want to miss what might be the only opportunity he had to get a big hit. “In the big leagues, a lot of the times you only get one pitch to hit in an at-bat,” Morneau said. “I wanted to be ready from the first pitch to hit it.”
3. A few select Blue Jays are driving this approach
Bo Bichette & Randal Grichuk’s swing rates on first pitches in the strike zone are each up 14% since 2019. Teoscar Hernandez drastically cut down on his swing rate on the first pitch last year, but in an ever-evolving chess match with pitchers, he’s back up drastically in the early parts of this season. And I wanted to focus on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose success this season has been driven, at least in part, by an ability to ambush on first pitches as effectively as some of the best first-pitch hitters in modern history.
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a torrid pace in terms of first-pitch hits
Since 1988, when pitches began being tracked, only 4 players in MLB history have had 60+ first pitch hits in a season: Kirby Puckett (x4), Jose Altuve (x2), Vinny Castilla (x2), and Lance Johnson. Guerrero Jr. is currently on pace for 63.
5. This is a continuation of an approach Guerrero Jr. began to implement last year
In Guerrero Jr.’s rookie season, he only swung at half of the strikes he saw on the first pitch. That’s up to around 60% over the last two seasons. That’s a difference of around 30–40 swings in a season, and that could mean 10–20 hits.
The other numbers of note in the table above are his swing rates at breaking balls. Just this week, we saw Guerrero take a first-pitch slider from Sandy Alcantara and hit it 412 feet for a home run. Well, over the last two seasons, Guerrero is offering at nearly two-thirds of the first pitch breaking balls he sees in the strike zone. He ranks in the top 10 in all of baseball for that, and his 12 base hits off first pitch breaking balls over the last two seasons is tied for the MLB lead. Again, just further evidence that this isn’t simply a “looking for a fastball early” approach. This is about looking for a specific pitch early in the count.
What I find so interesting about this is that it’s not a necessary condition for success. For example, throwing a first pitch breaking ball in the strike zone is a great way to get strike one on Mike Trout. He only swings at 18% of them! But he seems to be doing quite well for himself, even if he lets a few too many early breakers go by.
6. This is all just a big game of Blackjack or Poker
During my university days, I spent a lot of time at casinos both in Ontario and in Las Vegas. It’s probably a big reason why I’m a sports television producer now and not an engineer.
What drew me to games like blackjack and poker was the measurability. The way to know, without a shadow of a doubt, what the probability was of something happening.
Baseball is a lot like those games. Over years and years, and millions and millions of pitches, you develop an understanding for what the chances are of something happening. And everything is measurable. What’s the expected run value if you bunt with no outs and a runner on 2nd compared to if you swing away? What are the chances a particular pitcher throws a breaking ball with two strikes to a right-handed hitter?
And, with MLB’s Statcast/Baseball Savant, you can look up so much stuff on a macro level. For example, by searching league-wide pitching data, you can tell that your chances of a getting a pitch over the heart of the plate are at their highest with 0 strikes:
MLB PITCHES IN HEART OF STRIKE ZONE SINCE 2008 (9,000,000+ TOTAL PITCHES)
FIRST PITCH 28%
0 STRIKES 29%
1 STRIKE 26%
2 STRIKES 21%
For Vladimir Guerrero Jr specifically, this has played out in a similar fashion, although teams are (with good reason) more cautious with him than the average hitter:
PITCHES IN HEART OF STRIKE ZONE — VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.
FIRST PITCH 26%
0 STRIKES 26%
1 STRIKE 21%
2 STRIKES 20%
The heart of the strike zone is defined by being more than one ball width inside the outer edge of the zone.
And, to put it simply, it’s the only place where big-league hitters can do damage on a consistent basis:
MLB LEAGUE-WIDE SLUGGING % BY ATTACK ZONE — SINCE 2008
HEART: .545
SHADOW: .355
CHASE/WASTE: .149
And, to further this argument, the fewer strikes you have on you in the count, the easier it is to “zone up” on a pitch over the heart of the plate, or even just be more willing to sell out for one particular pitch in that area, consider:
MLB LEAGUE-WIDE SLUGGING % IN HEART OF STRIKE ZONE
0 STRIKES: .649
1 STRIKE: .610
2 STRIKES: .418
So even if you get one of those rare pitches that find their way into the heart of the strike zone, it’s tough to do damage with it, if you’re protecting with two strikes.
So, to bring it back to this season; the Blue Jays; and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in particular; it seems like they have a very good understanding of when to make a bet that they’re going to get a good pitch to hit.
And to me, that’s what this is. It’s knowing when to double down in black jack, or when to raise in poker. When you have hundredths of a second to react to the speed, spin, movement, and location of a pitch, and you’re trying to put the round barrel of a bat on a collision course with a round ball, you’re really just trying to make some good bets.
And like all good bets, sometimes they don’t pay out (think Bo Bichette swinging wildly at a first pitch fastball just a little too far up and out of the zone). But, just like in poker or blackjack, if you are following a good process, the results will pay out in the long term.
So if you look back at the historical data I just mentioned — that you’re most likely to get a pitch in the heart of the strike zone with no strikes, that you’re most able to do damage on a pitch in the heart of the strike zone the fewer strikes you have on you, etc — the Blue Jays are following that logic impeccably. Consider:
TORONTO SWING RATE THIS SEASON (MLB RANK)
FIRST PITCH: 3RD
0 STRIKES: 3RD
1 STRIKE: 19TH
2 STRIKES: 14TH
GUERRERO JR SWING RATE THIS SEASON (MLB RANK)
FIRST PITCH: 22ND
0 STRIKES: 58TH
1 STRIKE: 286TH
2 STRIKES: 276TH
Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays are extremely aggressive on the first pitch and with no strikes, and they dial back the aggressiveness as the strikes against them go up. Simply put, they’re making good bets, and I think it’s a big reason why they’ll continue to do damage throughout this season, including on the first pitch of an at-bat.
